Accuracy and Calibration Are Different Things
Being right often is one property. Knowing how often you will be right is a different one, and it is the one that makes a shop useful.
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Our Most Accurate Month Was Our Worst Result
Our best hit rate ever came from a month when the pipeline was broken. It took a fortnight to work out why the number was good.
Read articlePublishing the Error Rate Changed How We Argued
The decision to make our own miss rate public was meant to be about honesty. Its largest effect was on how disagreements inside the shop got settled.
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