The Grading Window We Kept Moving
PlayerGem's grading window for one basketball rating shifted four times before we admitted we were protecting a numbe...
Read itLatest Articles
What We Do With a Rating We Can No Longer Grade
PlayerGem's method for handling ratings that can't be graded after the fact — and why unresolvable records are the mo...
Read itWhen Instinct Outscored the Corpus
PlayerGem's grading desk on the week a colleague's unaided instinct produced better-calibrated ratings than the shop'...
Read itShrinking Our Own Confidence on Principle
PlayerGem applied shrinkage to its own stated confidence levels and found the shop had been systematically overclaimi...
Read itThe Grading Window Has to Be Fixed in Advance
PlayerGem's grading process only works if the window closes before we see the outcome — here is what happened when we...
Read itOur Most Accurate Month Was Our Worst Result
Our best hit rate ever came from a month when the pipeline was broken. It took a fortnight to work out why the number was good.
Read articleAccuracy and Calibration Are Different Things
Being right often is one property. Knowing how often you will be right is a different one, and it is the one that makes a shop useful.
Read articlePublishing the Error Rate Changed How We Argued
The decision to make our own miss rate public was meant to be about honesty. Its largest effect was on how disagreements inside the shop got settled.
Read articleAll Keeping Articles
- The Grading Window We Kept Moving
- What We Do With a Rating We Can No Longer Grade
- When Instinct Outscored the Corpus
- Shrinking Our Own Confidence on Principle
- The Grading Window Has to Be Fixed in Advance
- Our Most Accurate Month Was Our Worst Result
- Accuracy and Calibration Are Different Things
- Publishing the Error Rate Changed How We Argued