Distrust Any Result You Are Pleased About
Bad results get investigated because they demand it. Good ones supply their own explanation, which is exactly why they need scrutiny more.
Read articleNotes on finding the undervalued player. The method, not the picks.
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Bad results get investigated because they demand it. Good ones supply their own explanation, which is exactly why they need scrutiny more.
Read articleOnce a rating exists it stays and gets graded however it turns out. The rule sounds like theatre until you see what deletion does.
Read articleThe decision to make our own miss rate public was meant to be about honesty. Its largest effect was on how disagreements inside the shop got settled.
Read articleWe covered a sixth sport for two seasons, then stopped. Not because we were inaccurate — because we could not grade it cleanly.
Read articleAdding a second sport was supposed to be a configuration change. It broke in a way that told us which parts of our method were actually general.
Read articleThe same method applied to five sports fails in five different ways. Each sport has a specific weakness it exploits, and none of them are the obvious one.
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