All Articles

The Corpus (15)

• Trusted Longest, Turned Out Shortest
• The Corpus Entry We Trusted for Its Age
• When More Data Made the Rating Smaller
• The Corpus Entry That Aged Well and Taught Us Nothing
• The Corpus Entry We Built Twice
• A Corpus Entry We Stopped Trusting
• When the Corpus Grew and the Ratings Got Worse
• When the Feed Quietly Changed Shape
• Cleaning Names Is Most of Building a Corpus
• The Corpus Entry That Was Correct and Useless
• The Corpus Entry We Kept Updating
• The Boring Half of the Work Is All of the Work
• The Season We Trusted a Nine-Game Sample
• What Counts as Enough History
• Why a Proven Performer Outranks a Hot Streak

The Gates (12)

• The Gate We Closed on an Undefined Stat
• The Gate We Pass on Days the Corpus Feels Thin
• The Gate That Changes With the Checker
• The Gate We Pass First: Cheapest to Check
• The Gate We Apply Last Because It Hurts
• The Gate Built for One Sport, Applied to Four
• The Off-Season Problem Nobody Warns You About
• Available Is Not the Same as Expected to Feature
• Why We Refuse Anything Already Underway
• The Gate That Leaked for Eight Days
• A Filter That Was Silently Rejecting Everything
• Most Candidates Should Die Before You Score Them

Reading the Line (17)

• The Line That Moved Before Anyone Changed Their Mind
• The Line That Confirmed a Forgotten Corpus
• The Line That Named a Belief Nobody Had Checked
• The Line That Moved While the Corpus Held Still
• The Line That Settled Before the Corpus Had an Opinion
• The Line That Moved Before the Corpus Caught Up
• The Line That Moved Before We Understood It
• Why the Same Line Reads Differently on Different Days
• When Two Sources Agreed and Both Were Wrong
• The Question Is Never High or Low
• Reading What Somebody Believed Last Tuesday
• What the Line Remembers the Corpus Forgot
• When the Line Moved and We Missed Why
• A Line Is a Claim About Expectation, Nothing More
• The Number That Turned Out to Measure Nothing
• What Disagreement Between Sources Tells You
• When Everyone Agrees, Be Suspicious of Yourself

Keeping Score (18)

• The Grading Window We Trusted Too Long
• The Window We Trusted Because We Set It First
• Grading the Window Instead of the Rating
• The Grading Window We Opened Early
• A Column That Passed Every Check and Said Nothing
• The Grading Window We Agreed On and Ignored
• The Grading Column We Forgot to Check
• The Grading Column We Added to Feel Thorough
• Grading a Window We Closed Too Early
• The Grading Window We Set After Seeing Results
• The Grading Window We Kept Moving
• What We Do With a Rating We Can No Longer Grade
• When Instinct Outscored the Corpus
• Shrinking Our Own Confidence on Principle
• The Grading Window Has to Be Fixed in Advance
• Our Most Accurate Month Was Our Worst Result
• Accuracy and Calibration Are Different Things
• Publishing the Error Rate Changed How We Argued

Across Sports (16)

• The Gate We Apply to One Sport, Skip in Another
• The Gate Soccer Passed That Hockey Retired
• Soccer and Basketball's Shared Stat, Kept by One
• The Tennis Gate That Told Us Nothing About Tennis
• Shrinkage We Applied Evenly and Shouldn't Have
• Shrinkage Floors Set Differently Per Sport
• The Gate Soccer Kept Failing That Baseball Never Reached
• The Corpus Entry That Survived Every Gate and Lied
• When Instinct Held and the Corpus Caught Up
• Rotation, Rest, and the Limits of Prior Performance
• Individual Sports Break Our Method
• A Sport We Gave Up On, and Why
• The Method Transferred, the Thresholds Did Not
• The Same Model Failing in Two Directions
• What Baseball Taught Us About Our Hockey Gates
• What Each Sport Punishes You For

The Misses (23)

• The Gate We Passed on an Unclosed Window
• The Gate We Passed on History Alone
• Shrinkage We Removed for a Colleague's Confidence
• The Gate We Passed Because the Corpus Looked Full
• The Gate We Added Twice and Never Noticed
• Confidence Applied Correctly to the Wrong Question
• The Grading Window We Reset After the Miss
• The Gate We Inherited and Never Questioned
• The Gate We Trusted Because We Built It
• The Gate We Added After the Fact and Called Foresight
• The Gate We Rebuilt After a Retired Player
• The Gate We Passed Twice Before We Got It
• The Gate We Closed Right for the Wrong Reason
• The Gate We Closed Too Late
• The Shrinkage That Was Hiding a Real Signal
• The Corpus Built on the Wrong Stat Version
• When the Corpus Was Right and the Gates Were Not
• Chasing a Pattern That Was Two Data Points
• What a Good Month Nearly Cost Us
• The Rating We Should Never Have Published
• The Bug That Looked Like a Finding
• The Week Everything Was Confidently Wrong
• We Graded Ourselves Generously for Months

Doctrine (12)

• The Gate We Added Because the Data Scared Us
• The Gate We Inherited From a Sport We Left
• The Gate We Added to One Sport and Forgot
• The Gate That Passed the Same Player Twice
• The Gate We Added Because a Colleague Misremembered
• The Calibration Gap We Explained Away
• No Single Night May Dominate the Slate
• If You Cannot Grade It, Do Not Publish It
• Rules We Made Up That Turned Out to Be Wrong
• Distrust Any Result You Are Pleased About
• Never Delete a Rating, Only Grade It
• Write the Threshold Down Before You See the Data