All Articles

The Corpus (11)

• The Corpus Entry We Built Twice
• A Corpus Entry We Stopped Trusting
• When the Corpus Grew and the Ratings Got Worse
• When the Feed Quietly Changed Shape
• Cleaning Names Is Most of Building a Corpus
• The Corpus Entry That Was Correct and Useless
• The Corpus Entry We Kept Updating
• The Boring Half of the Work Is All of the Work
• The Season We Trusted a Nine-Game Sample
• What Counts as Enough History
• Why a Proven Performer Outranks a Hot Streak

The Gates (7)

• The Gate Built for One Sport, Applied to Four
• The Off-Season Problem Nobody Warns You About
• Available Is Not the Same as Expected to Feature
• Why We Refuse Anything Already Underway
• The Gate That Leaked for Eight Days
• A Filter That Was Silently Rejecting Everything
• Most Candidates Should Die Before You Score Them

Reading the Line (11)

• The Line That Moved Before We Understood It
• Why the Same Line Reads Differently on Different Days
• When Two Sources Agreed and Both Were Wrong
• The Question Is Never High or Low
• Reading What Somebody Believed Last Tuesday
• What the Line Remembers the Corpus Forgot
• When the Line Moved and We Missed Why
• A Line Is a Claim About Expectation, Nothing More
• The Number That Turned Out to Measure Nothing
• What Disagreement Between Sources Tells You
• When Everyone Agrees, Be Suspicious of Yourself

Keeping Score (8)

• The Grading Window We Kept Moving
• What We Do With a Rating We Can No Longer Grade
• When Instinct Outscored the Corpus
• Shrinking Our Own Confidence on Principle
• The Grading Window Has to Be Fixed in Advance
• Our Most Accurate Month Was Our Worst Result
• Accuracy and Calibration Are Different Things
• Publishing the Error Rate Changed How We Argued

Across Sports (10)

• The Gate Soccer Kept Failing That Baseball Never Reached
• The Corpus Entry That Survived Every Gate and Lied
• When Instinct Held and the Corpus Caught Up
• Rotation, Rest, and the Limits of Prior Performance
• Individual Sports Break Our Method
• A Sport We Gave Up On, and Why
• The Method Transferred, the Thresholds Did Not
• The Same Model Failing in Two Directions
• What Baseball Taught Us About Our Hockey Gates
• What Each Sport Punishes You For

The Misses (15)

• The Gate We Trusted Because We Built It
• The Gate We Added After the Fact and Called Foresight
• The Gate We Rebuilt After a Retired Player
• The Gate We Passed Twice Before We Got It
• The Gate We Closed Right for the Wrong Reason
• The Gate We Closed Too Late
• The Shrinkage That Was Hiding a Real Signal
• The Corpus Built on the Wrong Stat Version
• When the Corpus Was Right and the Gates Were Not
• Chasing a Pattern That Was Two Data Points
• What a Good Month Nearly Cost Us
• The Rating We Should Never Have Published
• The Bug That Looked Like a Finding
• The Week Everything Was Confidently Wrong
• We Graded Ourselves Generously for Months

Doctrine (7)

• The Calibration Gap We Explained Away
• No Single Night May Dominate the Slate
• If You Cannot Grade It, Do Not Publish It
• Rules We Made Up That Turned Out to Be Wrong
• Distrust Any Result You Are Pleased About
• Never Delete a Rating, Only Grade It
• Write the Threshold Down Before You See the Data